Uganda is experiencing significant climate variability, marked by rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and extreme weather events. Under a high-emission scenario, Uganda’s temperature is projected to rise by 1.8°C by 2050 and 3.7°C by the 2090s. Rainfall patterns are increasingly unpredictable, with some areas experiencing increased precipitation while others, particularly in the north and northeast, are seeing reductions. The western shores of Lake Victoria, the Central Western region, Mt. Elgon and areas south of Lake Kyoga are expected to experience more frequent and intense rainfall.

Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and landslides are becoming more common. Heavy rainfall is increasing the risk of flooding, leading to loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, soil erosion and waterlogging, which threaten food security. Between 2004 and 2011, droughts affected 2.4 million people, causing losses of $1.2 billion, equivalent to 7.5% of Uganda’s 2010 GDP. The cattle corridor districts are particularly prone to drought and rising aridity may lead to water scarcity, resource conflicts and biodiversity loss. Higher temperatures and increased dryness also threaten livestock and crop production.

Uganda has enacted policies to address climate change, including the Climate Change Act of 2021 (Cap. 182), the National Climate Change Policy (2015) and the Uganda Vision 2040, which emphasise low-carbon development. Uganda’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), updated in 2022, commits to a 24.7% emissions reduction.

Investments inrenewable energy, climate-smart agriculture and ecosystem restorationare key to Uganda’s sustainable future. The government, private sector and international partners are working towards climate resilience, but further action is needed to scale up solutions, strengthen institutions and ensure inclusive participation in climate adaptation efforts.

Climate finance snapshot

Uganda, though a low emitter, contributing less than 0.1% of global emissions, is highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate damage in key sectors like agriculture, water, infrastructure and energy is projected to cost $273–437 billion by 2050. The country faces severe climate financing gaps despite the growing need for mitigation and adaptation efforts. Uganda's updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) estimates a requirement of $28.1 billion by 2030 for emission reduction targets, with $194.5 million needed annually for adaptation actions.

Public climate finance data remains inconclusive, but Uganda's 2023/2024 National Budget Framework allocated UGX 547 billion ($146 million) to climate-related activities, with UGX 269 billion ($72 million) from domestic sources and UGX 279 billion ($74 million) from external funding. This remains below the required annual targets. International support has played a critical role, with $4.74 billion committed through 2,303 climate projects (2000-2021), mainly in grants (64.7%) and debt (35%). Climate finance allocations have been 52% for adaptation and 48% for mitigation, with agriculture, forestry and fisheries being the largest recipients (20.7%), followed by environmental protection (19%), water and sanitation (10%) and energy (9.8%).

Challenges

Uganda has opportunities to tap into global climate funds, such as the Loss and Damage Fund ($661 million pledged at COP28) and the Green Climate Fund ($12.8 billion available). However, barriers exist, including regulatory uncertainties, limited awareness of funding options, complex fund application processes, low technical capacity for developing bankable projects and inadequate climate finance tracking mechanisms.

Strengthening institutional frameworks, financial regulations and capacity-building efforts is crucial for Uganda to mobilise more climate finance, leverage private sector investments and enhance resilience against climate change impacts. The Parliamentarians for Climate Finance project supports parliamentarians and partners to navigate regulatory hurdles, build skills, and involve the private sector in improving access to and use of climate finance.